China Real Estate, Market Trends and the Shift to Professional Asset Management: An interview with Guy Fulton

You may listen to this interview from HERE. 

Guy Fulton is the founder of Carlton Property Limited, an advisory firm that works with real estate asset owners on a range of issues related to real estate asset management and restructuring in Asia with a focus on Greater China. He previously spent 14 years at CPP Investments (Canada Pension Plan Investment Board) where he grew and managed the Greater China real estate portfolio, as well as portfolios in South East Asia and started the business in Australia. Prior to that, he worked at Citi Property Investors and Savills in various roles related to real estate across acquisitions, asset management, capital raising and advisory. Guy was also a member of the management board of ANREV (Asian Association for Investors in Non-Listed Real Estate Vehicles) for 6 years. He attended the University of Oxford and completed an MA in Oriental Studies, including Chinese Language and Literature. He also holds a Master of International and Public Affairs from the University of Hong Kong and an MBA from the NYU Stern School of Business.  

Q1. Please introduce yourself and tell us about your current interests.

I had the good fortune to visit Hong Kong for the first time in the late 1970s. My father was from New Zealand and as he was in the travel business, we would occasionally fly from London, where I grew up, to Auckland which back then took close to 48 hours! We would often break up the journey so Hong Kong was a natural place to stop and I remember being intrigued by Asia from a young age, which then sparked in me the idea to study Chinese as an undergraduate at university.

A long winded way of saying I have always been interested in China and still am to this day. While it may have fallen off many global investors’ radars, I think the fact it is the world’s 2^nd largest economy and the largest trading partner for most countries makes it too big to ignore, and I remain fascinated by the politics, economics and social changes that happen in the country. You just have to go there and feel the energy, which I enjoy doing on a regular basis.

My current work with Carlton Property takes me to various key cities across China on behalf of clients on a regular basis, and keeping close to the real estate continues to be the only way to keep abreast of what is going on in the market there. Carlton Property is currently retained by some major private and listed companies in Asia to review their assets and portfolios, looking at operating and capital structures with a view to optimizing value for a capital markets exit. In this capacity I work closely with Andrew Taylor at Ardgour Capital Services, who also has deep experience investing in the China property markets, and it is very interesting times for both of us to be involved in this kind of advisory work.

Q2. You began your real estate career back in the 1990s in office leasing in Shanghai. How did you end up there and what was that experience like? Did it shape your outlook on China’s real estate sector?

Yes, having determined I wanted to live and work in China, it was then a question of what industry would be interesting to work in, and I happened to arrive in Hong Kong in the mid-1990s when the first wave of real estate investment was entering into mainland China. I remember interviewing with a number of the big agency firms, all of whom said they would send me to China and so ended up joining First Pacific Davies, which was later bought by Savills plc. So, without really knowing what I was doing I was given a hotel room and a telephone directory (yes, it was a while ago!) and told to cold call all the MNCs who were coming into Shanghai. The hotel room had a pull down bed which was then used as an office during the day so at least the commute was short! After we grew to 3 employees I did manage to convince my boss to allow me to get a separate room as well, and from there the business went from strength to strength.

One highlight of that time was when the company was appointed to lease and manage the 88-storey Jin Mao Building in Shanghai, at that time the world’s 3^rd tallest building, which came to market as the Asian crisis hit in 1998. It was tough going as many companies were pulling back, but China got a lot of respect at the time for not devaluing its currency and managed to weather the storm. Inspecting the building in a worker’s lift 450 metres up was quite an experience, but not good if you get vertigo!

Two major catalysts for the start of the growth of the real estate sector in China, which also happened around this time, were the reforms in the residential market in 1998 and the country joining the WTO in 2001. The reforms in the residential market allowed developers to sell commodity housing on the private market and thereby also facilitated the introduction of mortgages for the mass market, both of which then powered the residential sector. It was pretty much one way traffic from then until the aftermath of Covid in 2023, with a blip during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) when China unleashed a significant stimulus package of RMB 5 trillion in response.

Q3. While it is difficult to make generalizations, where is the real estate market in China at the moment, both in terms of residential and non-residential? What are the key challenges you see?

I think the market at present is suffering from both an excess of supply and sluggish demand, so it really is the worst of both worlds, and this applies across all sectors. Although there is general economic malaise, demand is sluggish partly because so much wealth has been tied up in real estate for Chinese urban dwellers. Given house prices have come down people are not confident about spending at present, which is significantly impacting consumer demand.

The residential sector also suffered from heavy government regulation, most notably the ‘Three Red Lines’ policy in 2021, which caused the downturn in the market given it generated a lack of confidence among buyers that their properties would be completed, which in turn then caused the wave of bond defaults and bankruptcies that we have seen. Developers in China had two sources of funding, from buyer pre-sales and bank financing, both of which stopped as a result of this regulation and has essentially caused the failure of a number of companies, most notably Evergrande. Sales prices have dropped over 20% in Shanghai since the peak, although this is an average number which disguises the fact that developers have had to significantly discount primary product to sell it, which has been offset by increases in the secondary market as buyers now prefer completed product. The drops have also been much higher in lower tier cities.

The overall weaker state of the consumer economy has also impacted investment properties across all asset classes. The logistics market in particular saw a lot of capital raised over the period from 2020-2023, when investment volumes were c.USD 5 billion a year. When demand dropped post-Covid, this led to rental drops of over 40% in some areas. Retail properties have also suffered, although we are now seeing sales levels in excess of 2021 levels in the stronger performing malls across China. Despite this, however, spend per consumer is still down from these levels on average as people have downgraded their spending patterns, both going out less and buying cheaper alternatives where they exist.

The first key challenge now is to restore confidence to the residential sector by ensuring homes that have been paid for are delivered to the buyers who have paid for them and ensuring inventory drops to a point where prices will stabilize. There is currently a government program of up to RMB 4 trillion to do both of these, as well as buy back unsold inventory from developers and convert it to social housing. Combined with lower housing starts (we are now at similar levels to 2003 down 48% from the peak), this will reduce inventory and stabilize prices. Eventually the government needs to diversify savings away from just residential real estate as a store of value to other types of investments. With the development of products such as C-REIT, which gives access to commercial markets, we are starting to see this.

The other big challenge for the Central Government is boosting consumption, which I will talk more about later, but the fact is the economy has been skewed for too long in favour of government spending and investment and needs to diversify. Should this happen it will then help support investment properties, particularly those that are skewed towards the consumer such as logistics and retail.

Q4. What does a market recovery look like? What steps do you need to see in terms of milestones before you have confidence in this recovery? What can the government do to address these issues from a policy or support perspective?

From a macro perspective consumption needs to rise in China, and I think the government realizes this but is not sure yet how to rebalance the economy or been aggressive enough in the measures they have taken. Options around savings and investment are no longer feasible and net exports will be impacted by the trade war. Investment is at 43.5% of the economy whereas consumption is only 37%, and has remained stubbornly at this number for a long time, compared to close to 70% in the US. I am not sure it will ever get to US levels but there is still a lot of distance between the two.

A meaningful social safety net in China in the near term is unlikely, and lower interest rates will probably not drive consumption as deposit rates have been low for some time, so China needs to move from a high volume to a higher value market to create wealth, both with its manufacturing but also investment options. We have seen technological innovation lead in this respect to date, but ultimately real estate will also play a part in this.

As the number of developers decreases, the sector consolidates and new starts fall, property prices will eventually stabilize. Analyst estimates currently have this happening sometime in the 1H, 2026 but we are seeing signs of it now as monthly drops in home prices start to reduce. The key thing is that once prices have stopped falling then consumers should start to feel more optimistic about their financial situation. One thing that has been interesting to note is that even during this overall downturn, large, high end properties of the likes sold by top tier developers such as HongKong Land and Kerry Properties in Shanghai have been selling at overall price points of over RMB 40 million, so the top end consumer has the confidence in China to buy at present in the key Tier 1 cities.

On the investment properties side, the market has to absorb the supply pipeline that is currently under construction. As a general comment this will start to happen in the top tier cities across the key sectors from 2027 onwards, so a couple of years from now, as there have been very few new starts since 2023. Once that happens the supply side of the equation will also start to be addressed.

The demand side is trickier as it is more of a confidence issue, but as noted above a stabilization of residential house prices is a big factor. Ultimately, however, more government policy will be needed to promote consumption. There have been policies in 2024 around subsidies and promotions for the trade in of old white goods for new ones, thereby promoting the sale of greener products, but at RMB 150 billion this only covered 0.3% of retail sales, so more is needed.

The government is also promoting services as well, particularly around domestic tourism, elderly care, and health and wellness in general and we have seen increased spending in these areas, as witnessed by more outdoor and athleisure wear being sold in shopping malls. There is also more of a focus on experiences as opposed to just buying goods in China, so I think we will see growth in these types of areas. Overall services are currently growing at 5%, faster than the rate of retail sales growth currently at 3-4% and are still much lower than the 50-60% of total retail sales we see in Western countries.

Q5. Given the current state of the market, is anyone investing?

Good question! Any recovery will be led by local capital given proximity to market and risk tolerance, and this is on the whole exactly what we are seeing. As interest rates have dropped in China to sub-3% for most borrowers, so we have seen a positive carry trade onshore for the first time since the early-2000s as Net Operating Income (NOI) yields have increased to around 6-6.5% in Tier 1 cities and slightly above that in the stronger Tier 2 cities. This gives any local investor a 300-400 bps spread and a total return on equity in the high single digits at say 50% leverage, which is more attractive than the 10 year government bond which right now sits at sub-2%.

Chinese insurance companies are also in general under allocated to real estate and real assets in general as most allocations hover at around 3-5%, as opposed to 10-12% in developed markets, so over time these allocations will increase, providing both the access to private assets and ultimately the inflation hedge these large funds require. Local investors are also active in the new energy infrastructure space too and I think as long as China can continue to innovate in these sectors, investment will continue.

I will talk more about the development of the REIT sector below, but in general the development of a liquid public market exit for investors, in the form of the C-REIT sector since its inception in 2021, has also spurred local GP funds in particular who see an opportunity to buy at the yields I mentioned above and inject into a C-REIT at a dividend yield of sub-4%, which is where they are currently trading in the commercial space.

Over time I expect we will continue to see the development of the local capital markets, both private and public across all sectors, which eventually when foreign capital does meaningfully return will provide exit alternatives for investors. This is how it played out in Japan and Korea, both of which now have sophisticated investors on the private side and developed REIT sectors for developers or funds to sell into or manage capital for.

Q6. What will it take for foreign capital to come back? We are seeing foreign players getting local licenses but is this a sign of real investor interest or is it still too early to tell?

There have been some deals done by foreign investors, but largely these have been situations where they already had an existing ownership stake and have taken the opportunity to buy out distressed local partners. Examples of this are Link REIT and GIC, who in 2024 both bought out China Vanke who were their partners on retail assets in Shanghai. The key here, as well as pricing, has been the quality of the assets and the fact they are located in a Tier 1 city, which has given these market players the confidence to buy. We have also seen big Middle Eastern funds investing into transactions led by some of the large global PE funds.

I think for foreign money to really come back two things need to happen. The first is rents need to stabilize so people can meaningfully underwrite investments, which will happen as supply slows and also demand returns. The second is that greater liquidity for exits is proven out providing greater clarity on where exit yields sit, which is also starting to come as I outlined above.

There are different types of real estate investors as well who have varying return profiles and will be looking at different opportunity sets. Opportunistic investors will likely be the first to come to market if they can get the 20%+ IRRs they require, potentially followed by the larger sovereign wealth funds who tend to have global investment committees and will assess transactions in China compared to how they stack up next to other opportunities around the world on a risk/return basis.

As you mention we are also seeing foreign developers obtaining foreign private fund management licenses to manage local capital, mainly from the insurance sector. For developers who have the right sort of product I think this is definitely an opportunity. These applications take time and commitment to the local market but I think those that are interested in building long term businesses in China will believe this is worthwhile because of the opportunity to manage the large pools of local capital that will become available.

Q7. While gloom and doom tend to command most headlines on Chinese real estate, where do you see pockets of opportunity? Are you optimistic about the future of the sector and how do you see it developing in the future?

One big development recently that I have mentioned above has been the formation of the C-REIT sector which I think is a real positive for the maturing of the market. The vehicle creates liquidity for institutions and also diversifies investment opportunities for retail investors, which is key to the development of the overall investment universe. The regulatory code is at present cumbersome, particularly for foreign investors looking to achieve exits as you can only repatriate 20% of the funds raised and the remainder has to be reinvested back into the local market. The sector is also currently comparatively small with 42 REITs comprising a total market cap of RMB 105 billion. However, it is a start, and we have to assume this will grow and the regulations will change over time.

In terms of specific sectors I think that mid-market retail is poised for a strong recovery if the government can give greater support to consumption. Most shopping malls in China have had to innovate to a far greater extent than seen in the West given the intense competition, and the good operators are nimble, aggressive and can react fast to market changes. Also, much retail in China is already insulated against online retailing as this has been around for over 10 years, so we see fewer fashion brands than we did before. In fact, there are online brands who now take offline space to showcase their products. Luxury is likely to continue to struggle, however, given overall consumption downgrades.

The rental housing sector is also of interest to local investors, given that the white collar population will in general move to the larger cities for the right job opportunity and that local people tend to rent before buying given general affordability. This trend will continue as young people will flock to the key Tier 1 cities, although scaling up in this sector has proven tough so far and it is prone to government regulation, not just in China but many countries around the world. Still investors continue to look at it in both China and also Hong Kong to find ways to access, in some cases through operating platforms.

China will continue to need a functioning residential sector for new housing demand, but in the future more for first time buyers, upgrades or household changes. The large wave of urbanization has essentially finished in China with a rate currently hovering around 67% and only likely to increase to over 70% up to 2035. The sector will shrink from the height of the market in 2021 when 1.55 billion square metres was sold, likely down to somewhere around 600 million square metres as a sustainable level. The other thing that has been mentioned in the press is a revision to the pre-sales model which to me caused many of the issues in the market in the first place. To some extent this is naturally happening as most buyers now look for completed product.

I am not saying this is an investment opportunity at present, but any property market needs a functioning home builders sector and as the sector rerates, China will be no exception and it will be possible to invest in the cycles in the future. Tier 1 cities will be the most in demand and it is here that we have seen the lower drops in sales prices since the crisis in the sector began in 2021.

Ultimately though the opportunity to invest will lie with backing the right operators across sectors that have strong fundamentals as China becomes more of an asset management as opposed to development market.

Q8. What do you see are the key risks to the scenario you have outlined above in the previous question?

There are certainly risks to the downside and the one most front of mind at present is the trade war. Tariffs clearly represent a threat to levels of trade, which would particularly impact the bonded logistics sector if there were fewer goods produced for export. However, given China has the largest manufacturing base in the world, I think a lot of this can be redirected to the domestic market if the demand exists.

Another risk is the Chinese government does not provide enough support to consumption over the period, which impacts retail and logistics overall. So far, we have seen limited progress in this regard, but one of the best supports for consumption in China is continued innovation. For example, how many EVs have been bought in China in the last 10 years owing to China’s lead in this sector, and this will continue as the clean energy build out continues. Continued innovation in areas like AI, where we have recently witnessed the rise of DeepSeek, will continue to power data centre development in China as well and advances in medicine will grow life sciences, and these are both sectors to watch.

Government regulation, which tends to be swift and heavy in China, is also always a risk, however I think given the state of the market at present we are likely to see policies that will be supportive to the real estate market as opposed to controlling it. Lower interest rates will also assist in this regard.

The final one to address is demographics, which are of course declining in China. The population hit a peak in 2022 of 1.41 billion and is now dropping, with continued low levels of marriage and a fertility rate of 1.71, below replacement rate, and unlikely to rise, despite what the government may try and do. There is precedent to how this plays out as we have seen in Japan, where despite a flat economy and declining population, Tokyo has continued to grow. I think we will see something similar play out in China but across several of the key, major cities, so on a larger scale.

Q9. China has traditionally been a developers’ market with a focus on construction. This has led to competency in engineering and architecture but arguably a lack of skills around managing these assets. Are you seeing a shift towards professional asset management?

Yes, from the early 1990s essentially up until Covid, China was a developer’s market. If you looked at the amount of real estate per capita in urban areas China was well behind the US across all sectors after the lack of development from the 1960s to the 1980s and was essentially ‘catching up’ and managed to do this very quickly. New job opportunities in manufacturing and construction, and later services, drove people to the cities and the urbanization rate increased from the low 30s in 1980 to close to 70% now, which required a lot of housing to be built as well as offices, shopping malls, industrial buildings and also social infrastructure such as schools and hospitals.

Out of this development boom came the household names we know of today, such as Vanke, Evergrande, China Resources Land and Longfor, all of whom grew to become large cap businesses, for example Evergrande generated USD 77 billion revenue in 2020. I think something of a turning point was in 2017 when the then Chairman of Vanke remarked that ‘the golden period of Chinese development’ has ended as margins were starting to fall back then. Local governments also came to depend on the revenue from land sales for a large part of their budgets, to the extent that looking back, little thought was given to how much was too much and what was needed where.

So, we get to where we are today where the real estate market has an excess of supply, which combined with the economic slowdown since Covid has caused rents to fall, but as with many things in China this is not happening evenly across the country. Tier 1 cities, where people still want to move and the wealth is greatest are seeing less of an impact than say Tier 3 or 4 cities where there is a lot of vacant property and many of the ‘ghost cities’ that have been reported in the press are located.

This is a long winded way of saying that now the assets have been built out across all sectors, and we are in a competitive market. Those that are well managed, able to extend their land leases, stay ahead of capex requirements with superior property management and are better able to attract the highest quality tenants will thrive, and those that cannot will struggle.

This will require different types of people in the business, for example, leasing, marketing and tenant relationship management as opposed to large numbers of builders, engineers and architects. Also, the milestones and incentives need to change. We are no longer just talking about delivery dates or completions, but more leasing velocity and maximizing rental revenue, which is a different skill set. It also varies somewhat across sectors, with good operators in the consumer facing sectors such as rental housing and retail making greater use of technology to enhance the customer experience and increase customer retention through the use of apps, loyalty schemes and their ability to collate data and anticipate consumer needs.

Q10. You have noted that a lack of clarity around the extension of land leases in China is a concern for investors. What is the background of this issue and why is it important?

So all land in China is on a leasehold from the government, 70 years for residential, 50 for industrial and 40 for commercial and many of these will soon be expiring given they were granted from the early 1990s. Typically investors need security of tenure if they are to commit capital and this cannot be done if there is a risk the government can take back your asset.

Tied to this is the theme of urban regeneration and renewal whereby capital will be needed for assets that are now 40-50 years old and either need a complete refit or even to be torn down and rebuilt, but this will only happen if land leases can be extended and investors feel they can confidently commit capital to do so.

At present there is little clarity on how these will be renewed although there are individual cases where extensions have happened. There needs to be a more open policy that works for both local governments and investors. I think that local governments would also like to resolve this issue but from what I understand they are waiting for direction from above that has not come yet. It would certainly be a key contributor to the recovery of the investment property markets and bring value-add players to the market when that happens.

Q11. While cross-country comparisons have their limitations, are there useful parallels in Japan or Korea for China? For example, the emergence in Japan of J-Reits and pension funds as key players in real estate helped that country work through its challenges. Do you see a similar pattern emerging in China?

Yes. Japan is particularly instructive as it had a housing boom that ended in the mid-1990s followed by low growth and low interest rates. Since that time the capital markets have developed to where the savings pools have been allocated to private side real estate investment where structural opportunities exist and we have also seen the development of the capital markets since 2001. As I have outlined above, China will follow a similar trajectory, which we have already seen starting.

Although there will be one interest rate for the whole country, likely the largest cities where the exciting job opportunities are located, such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, etc., will grow whereas others will be flat or possibly even decline given the reduction in population. This will essentially produce a two-tier economy where a lower interest rate will benefit the higher growth areas. A relaxation of hukou restrictions will also help movement to the higher tier cities in the future.

The 10 year government bond yield in Japan fell from c.5% in the early 90s to below 1% by the late 90s and we are seeing a similar thing happen in China. If we take the comparison further, yields on property stabilized during this period at about 300 bps above and have more or less stayed at that level, so it is not unreasonable to assume this will happen in China, which tells us that if the 10 year in China is now just below 2%, then yields on real estate in the key Tier 1 cities should be around 5.5%-6%, which is where I think they will probably settle, unless we see higher rates of GDP growth and they compress further.

Investment into real estate in the larger cities such as Tokyo and Osaka is up to 70% from local capital, i.e. developers, family offices and institutions, which will again happen in China, replacing the international (including Hong Kong and Singapore) investors who initially dominated when local capital was scarcer.

Korea has followed a similar path since the Asian crisis, developing the K-REIT market in 2001 to both diversify investment options and enhance liquidity in the real estate market, and these too are dominated by local capital to the point where over 80% of investment is domestic.  REIT markets are often borne out of a crisis, and the US was no exception with listings only really taking off after the crisis of the early 1990s.

Q12. Shifting gears, you spend your time now advising asset owners on their portfolios. What does this process look like and what advice do you have for groups looking to better manage their portfolios?

The first thing to do is a diagnostic of what asset owners currently have from an asset and structuring perspective. China is one of the more complex jurisdictions to own real estate given the closed capital account and the difficulty of bringing cash in and out, so how the holding company has been set up and what is the capital structure are also determinants of what any future value will look like. For example, when many foreign investors were entering the market offshore debt was cheaper than onshore and so it made sense to borrow in USD. However, this has now completely reversed and so one issue to look at is whether investors can use products available in the onshore market.

We have discussed asset management above, which is driven by both the underlying quality of the real estate but also the operating structure of the business and what skill sets the company is focused on. Real estate is ultimately a people business. So, one major focus of asset management is hiring the right people in the areas of the business where they are most needed and putting the right incentives in place. There are many companies out there who have good assets but do not provide the correct incentives to their people, and I think ultimately, they will lose in a war for talent, which is where we are at the moment. Also in a tough market while asset enhancement initiatives (AEI) opportunities can unlock value, they have to be carefully thought through and a realistic risk-return analysis undertaken to understand the payback. Critical to this is really understanding the market positioning of the asset and who the core tenant base is, and we work with clients to do this.

Tenant relationships are also key at present so having a strong leasing team is very important. This can be difficult as tenant relationships happen at the personal level and often people change or move on, so a relationship can go too, but this is an important component of the overall picture and where resources should be focused.

The areas to focus on are the revenue stream of the asset itself, how it is positioned and whether additional value can be created through AEI, then having the right capital and operating structures to deliver. Controlling costs is of course good but that does not mean across the board, as talent needs to be retained or even increased in areas where it is needed most. Finally, it also depends on what the long term strategy for the business is, but investors should always be assessing their exit scenarios and when is the optimal timing, as well as how to recycle capital into new opportunities, and that is another area we are assisting our clients to work through and effect.

Q13. Looking specifically at Hong Kong, what is your view on the state of the real estate market? How should investors look at the market and are you optimistic about the near or medium-term growth prospects?

Although the micro factors of supply and demand still apply in Hong Kong, the macro factors are different given the USD peg and sensitivity to US interest rates. Hong Kong also benefits from being an international financial centre with an open capital account with less of the structuring challenges of China. The current economic weakness in China has fed through into the real estate market in Hong Kong which has meant a lack of capital from the mainland, but I think that will change once pricing stabilizes and people feel there is money to be made here, so yes, in the medium term I am optimistic, especially if we see some weakness in the US dollar. The trade war could also be an opportunity for Hong Kong given its unique position in China as trade flows increase to other countries other than the US.

Any recovery in Hong Kong will likely be led by the residential market and we have also seen improving pricing in recent residential launches in Hong Kong and increased subscriptions. Events like the recent USD 5.3 billion CATL IPO creates a lot of new wealth in Hong Kong and much of that can get invested into real estate, and there will be more of these IPOs to come.

Of the investment properties, logistics has probably been the most resilient sector in Hong Kong due to low levels of supply, but subdued demand has caused rents to fall by a predicted 5% in 2025. Retail has suffered due to the leak of sales to Shenzhen and the Greater Bay Area where many people now spend their evenings or weekends, although this trend is now also slowing, and visitor numbers in 2025 are expected to return to 2018 levels.

The office sector has been hard hit recently due to excess supply and weaker demand. The sector is currently imbalanced, but supply does slow from 2028 onwards and anecdotally, there is a good level of activity in the market as large office tenants use the opportunity to find high quality or new buildings at lower rental levels. What Hong Kong would really benefit from overall is a new industry or sector to drive demand, whether it is related to new financial sectors such as cryptocurrency or offshoots of Chinese tech. The new 223,000 square foot lease by Jane Street announced last week on Site 3 in Central is great news for Hong Kong and I am sure there will be others that follow soon.

As I said, I remain optimistic about the investment environment in Hong Kong as it will always be a different city to the rest of China and an attractive place to live and work. As the economy recovers and there is increased uncertainty in the US and the rest of the world, we will see more capital flows as evidenced by recent stock market performance. The number of mainlanders here is increasing according to statistics around border crossings, as well as the higher rents seen in the residential market and the amount of Mandarin one hears walking around the city. Hong Kong was not a popular place for Chinese to live 10-15 years ago, but that is changing as it appeals more broadly.

Q14. Please share any favorite books, publications, blogs, podcasts or other resources that readers could use to improve their understanding of real estate, property investing, asset management or any other related topics.

The major banks and property consultancies such as Savills, JLL and CBRE provide a lot of research on the various sectors in Asia and globally, and these are available either on their websites or to clients, but other niche sources that are more specific to real estate in Asia and China include:

• Mingtiandi – daily articles on deals and players in the Asia markets written by Michael Cole and his team

• Private Equity Real Estate – monthly magazine available on a subscription basis, but gives a good overview of the global real estate PE world.

• China Property Report – covers statistical analysis on China residential and other sectors, written by Robert Ciemniak

• Ardgour Expects – very erudite macro and property research written by my business partner, Andrew Taylor who will gladly add you to his mailing list upon request.

If you or your company has a due diligence requirement or needs assistance on a fraud issue, corporate investigation, risk advisory, or other related matters, please contact us at info@kalavinkaadvisors.com or +852 2196 2727